The present disclosure relates generally to systematic algorithms (and associated systems and methods) that take a forecast model as input and produce a discrete probability distribution as output, using scenario reduction ideas from stochastic programming. In one example, an algorithm (and associated system and method) creates scenarios sequentially for each time period, leading to a scenario tree. These algorithms (and associated systems and methods) contrast with conventional methods that typically create scenarios for all time periods simultaneously and/or which do not form a scenario tree.